By Pius Mordi
There’s a shift in Nigerian politics of seismic proportion going on. As governance gives way to the politics of another electoral cycle in 2027 with many seeking reelection to their offices, especially those of the president and many governors, a new game is playing out. Governors of states run by opposition parties are taking turns to pledge their commitment to working for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reelection.
Nothing strange about it. After all, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi as governor of Rivers State and Bukola Saraki, his Kwara State counterpart led a team of five PDP governors to openly declare their opposition to then President Goodluck Jonathan’s bid for reelection in 2015. Four years later, Nyesom Wike led another group of five governors, again all PDP, to defy their party to vote in the candidate of a rival party.
The difference, and a crucial one at that, is that on both occasions, the renegade governors had already secured their second and final terms. This time, the opposition governors are all angling for reelection, just like Tinubu. Some of them are even quietly exploring the possibility of decamping to Tinubu’s APC. Akwa Ibom’s Pastor Umo Eno was unequivocal about his decision. “As for me, I’m supporting Baba Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term. When the time comes, I’ll tell you why”, he said.
Osun’s Ademola Adeleke went a step further with his campaign posters openly suggesting an alignment between him and Tinubu. His campaign posters feature both him and Tinubu as a combo to the people.
Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State clearly equated the success of his administration with that of the president in urging his people to support the president. Plateau’s Caleb Muftwang, Douye Diri of Bayelsa as well as Abba Kabir Yusuf of Kano have been taking turns to extol President Tinubu. Even the suspended Rivers governor Siminayi Fubara, in his Easter message, made praising the president the main part of his address to his people.
It is a development that has upended political calculations on what to expect in 2027. While the governors openly acknowledge the tough economic climate occasioned by the policies of the federal government and do not endorse such policies, yet in their calculations, the path to guaranteeing victory does not like in using the state of the economy in their messaging.
Critics of Nigeria’s political system ascribe the development to an acknowledgement of the failure of the electoral system and how it has been corrupted and manipulated. In the run up to the 2023 elections, the level of discount with then President Muhammadu Buhari was such that the opposition parties took it for granted that the APC government will be beaten. So confident were they that they failed to form a common front.
Unfortunately, their confidence was misplaced. Despite receiving less than 30 percent of popular votes, Tinubu somehow emerged victorious. With him now firmly in charge, there is very narrow chance of an upset in the election. The conduct and outcome of the recent governorship election in Edo State is seen as dress rehearsal of how it may pan out in 2027.
To that extent, the opposition governors may simply be playing a game of survival. It is not like a recourse to the judiciary may give the desired reprieve. The proceedings in the courts over the crisis in Rivers State may have made them recognise that a combination of a damaged Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the courts that has been making very controversial and strange judgements may have created the perception that Tinubu’s infamous recipé on how to win by grabbing it and running with it was not a joke.
Dele Farotimi, in a recent interview, is of the view that unless there is a fundamental electoral reform, the outcome of the 2027 elections has already been written. If there is no comprehensive reform, he said he will not participate in the election. The reality of conduct of elections in the country has raised concerns on the future of opposition parties in the country’s evolving political culture. And Farotimi’s stance resonates with leaders in the opposition parties even as they continue exploring the path to collaboration and merger to confront the behemoth APC has become.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar accused APC of intolerance and working to monopolise of power. He said the actions of the ruling party were steadily eroding pluralism, an essential element of true democracy. He said through his “unchecked actions”, Tinubu is “blurring the line between state power and personal ambition, magnifying his control over both the nation and its institutions.”
Dele Momodu, veteran journalist and PDP chieftain, echoed Atiku’s position, accusing the ruling party of deliberately instigating crises within Nigeria’s major opposition parties in an effort to weaken them. “Nigeria is obviously moving in a direction of a one-party state. The ruling party, APC, is so scared of opposition that right now crises are being orchestrated from party to party, especially the leading opposition parties like PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP. It’s obvious what is going on”, he said.
Similarly, Mark Adebayo, national spokesperson of the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP), accused Tinubu of engineering the disorganisation and persistent divisions within opposition political parties.
Although, opposition parties have control over 15 states, a healthy number, leaving the rest 21 to APC, internal squabbles in virtually all of them have left the governors from their fold seeking reelection vulnerable. They are on their own to fashion their own pathways to remaining in office.
The evolution of Tinubu and APC into a collosal machine is not the product of sterling performance or popularity in the years they have been running the country. In the run up to the gubernatorial election in Edo State, it was almost taken for granted that Godwin Obaseki would successfully engineer the victory of his party and install his favoured successor. They may not have reckoned with the ground work of the party in Aso Rock. They factored everything overwhelmingly. From the electoral umpire, the persons running the errands and the judiciary, it was a thorough job. It was a dress rehearsal for 2027 that delivered.
