By Bunmi Makinwa
The crowded scene of interested candidates for the important post of Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) a few months ago has shrunk by more than 50 per cent. A total of rumoured and declared eight candidates that included two former presidents, a vice-president, prime ministers and ministers, has decreased to only three candidates. They are: Mahamoud Ali Youssouf – Foreign Minister of Djibouti since 2005; Raila Odinga – long-time opposition leader and former Prime Minister of Kenya; Richard Randriamandrato – former Foreign Minister of Madagascar.In February in Addis Ababa, the African Union (AU) summit of heads of state and government will elect the chair to manage and lead AUC, which is the secretariat and bureaucratic arm of the AU. The chair is responsible for the harmonization of political agenda and executive aspects of the decision-making process for the heads of state and government of the 55 member states. In addition to promoting AU’s objectives, implementing its decisions, and coordinating with regional economic communities and partners, the AUC chair serves as the point of interaction with external partners and global entities on African common goals. The successful candidate must obtain two-thirds of the votes cast by the countries, and will serve for four years which is renewable for a second term. All three candidates meet the requirements for the post, having the experience, international exposure, political weight and backing of their respective countries. They have also demonstrated keen interest to serve as the head of the political body as seen during a televised live debate in December 2024 to familiarize the general public with the candidates. No formal ranking was done following the debate, and the heads of state and government that will vote for the chair will not base their decisions on the debate. Various factors will influence their choices, and some key ones can be drawn from past elections for the chairperson position. There have been five chairpersons since 2002 when the African Union was established. Former Ivoirian diplomat and Secretary-General of Organisation of African Unity (OAU), Amara Essy, was interim chairperson of AUC from 2002-2003. He was followed by former President of Mali, Alpha Konare (2003-2008) who was succeeded by former Foreign Minister of Gabon, Jean Ping (2008- 2012). Ping handed over to former Foreign Minister of South Africa Nkozasana Dlamini-Zuma (2012-2017) who was replaced by former Prime Minister of Chad, Mahamat Faki, the current chair.Essy managed the transition of OAU to the AU. However, he did not have sufficient political leverage to secure the position of chair for himself. The nascent AU was perceived by the heads of state as requiring to be managed by a political peer. Cote d’Ivoire withdrew Essy as its candidate just before the election, and Konare, a former President, received 35 of the 45 votes cast to assume the position in 2003. However, Konare lasted only one term. His management and leadership style created a problem for many heads of state. The political weight and seniority of a former head of state which helped Konare to get the position became the liability that ended his mandate in 2008. Coming with an extensive network of political alliances built from occupying ministerial posts in his country, and also during his term as president of the United Nations General Assembly, Ping in 2008 won the election with 31 votes. When South Africa decided to challenge Ping in 2012 after his initial term, it committed substantial resources to back its candidate, Dlamini-Zuma. South Africa rallied the entire southern African region in support of the nominee. Many countries felt uneasy that South Africa decided to disregard the unwritten convention that the five largest contributors to the AU budget – Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria, and South Africa – should not contest the commission’s highest office. The intention was to give room for “smaller” member states and avoid a perceived domination of the continent by the larger economies.The voting process in January 2012 was deadlocked. Ping was in the lead against Dlamini-Zuma after many rounds of voting, although neither candidate secured the requisite two-thirds majority votes for victory. Consequently, the election was postponed till July. In a tense atmosphere in July, Dlamini-Zuma emerged victorious with 37 votes after four rounds of voting to assume the position of AUC chair. Ping’s defeat was seen as partly due to the absence of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi who was receiving treatment abroad, and Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan who was dealing with heightened domestic insurgency. Both of them were strong supporters of Ping. Dlamini-Zuma chose to serve for only one term. In July 2016, the election for a new chair went on for 16 rounds yet none of the several candidates got the required two-thirds votes. A new round of election took place in January 2017, and Moussa Faki Mahamat, formerly Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Chad, who did not contest in July entered the race. His candidature ultimately won by 38 votes in the seventh round against Amina Mohamed, then Foreign Minister of Kenya. Fifteen countries from the southern African region abstained from voting to show their disagreement, according to various reports. Some analysts concluded that Mr. Faki won finally in 2017 because his country had its President, Idriss Deby, as the outgoing Chairperson of the African Union. Faki, himself, as Foreign Minister, presided over the Executive Council of the AU. The re-election of Faki in 2021 was straightforward as he was unopposed for the post. Faki got 51 votes out of 55 with three abstentions and one other member being ineligible to vote. He is the first to serve two terms in the position. Multiple issues account for the voting of countries at AUC chair election. Among the most prominent are: persistent, unyielding political and material support of the candidate’s country; support of large economies of the continent which also may bolster regional bloc; and effective diplomatic negotiations especially during the rounds of voting. The stances of countries on African and global politics such as pro-Western Sahara versus pro-Morocco; the Israel-Gaza war; and the contrasting support for Russia versus USA on Ukraine, can influence voting. Among the three candidates currently, Odinga (79) has been in the political limelight for a long time. He has contested and lost five elections for president. He served in various governments in his country, and has played important roles in African politics and in the AU. His obvious strengths may hinder his chances. His history of failures in all national presidential elections, and his turbulent resistance to ruling governments can be a cause of concern for certain countries. It is on record that Kenya lost a close election in 2017 for the same position, primarily due to lack of support by some countries in its own Eastern region, and lukewarm interest by many southern African countries. Djibouti’s Youssouf (59) continuous years of serving as foreign minister from 2005 to date has created for him a network of political allies and support. He also stands as the alternative for the countries that may feel dominated by Kenya in the region. Djibouti’s hosting of military bases for some foreign powers is a source of disagreement with several countries. In addition, a previous dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea which led to a war may leave lingering sentiments with some countries, and it can influence their support. Randriamandrato (55) of Madagascar, the third candidate, served as Madagascar’s minister of economy and finance from 2018 to 2021, and then briefly as minister of foreign from March to October 2022. He has the potential to emerge as a “dark horse” that can draw votes away from Kenya and Djibouti, and be ready to become the compromise candidate, or use the opportunity for other political aspirations. The African Union is divided into five regions – Southern, Central, Eastern, Western and Northern Africa. Only Northern and Eastern regions have not produced chairs for the Commission since its establishment in 2002. All the three candidates are from the Eastern region, which is expected to produce the next chair. Four of the five persons to hold this office in the past came from French-speaking African countries and only one came from the English-speaking group. The Lusophone or Portuguese-speaking countries have not occupied the position. Djibouti and Madagascar are Francophone and Kenya is Anglophone. Gender is not anticipated to be a factor. All candidates are male; although the possibility of an unexpected candidature by a woman if there is a deadlock during voting cannot be ruled out. The importance accorded to the AU will in part emanate from the personality of the AUC chair who is the face of Africa at many global fora. Whoever wins the election will have to deal with internal and external challenges of the continental organization. They include streamlining responsibilities among elected key officials of the AUC, invigorating the poorly motivated staff, and strengthening the weak funding base of the organisation. The chair also has to re-focus AUC away from its pursuit of donor-driven agenda, and deftly navigate the sensitive balance of authority between AUC chair and the heads of state and government of member states. More fundamentally, strong and capable African countries are the basis for building a well-performing continental body such as the AU.
Bunmi Makinwa is the CEO of AUNIQUEI Communication for Leadership
